Key Economic Indicators Show Continued Market Opportunities but
Slow Down in Sight
Credit unions can expect the U.S. economic growth will remain above
trend in 2017 and into 2018. That's what our director and chief economist
Steven Rick shared in our eighth annual Discovery Conference today.
Rick also shared that, as credit unions continue to reap the benefits from this economic
expansion, the next two years will continue to see a growth of up to 2.4
percent.
“We
continue to benefit from the second longest economic expansions in U.S. history
and credit unions have benefited from these tailwinds,” said Rick. “But we
should continue to expect to see the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in
the next year. We could also see a modest recession in 2019, due to a short
term credit cycle recalibration, but this will not emulate the recession we
experienced in 2008.”
He explained that both long and short-term interest rates will continue
to rise over the next four years, as they start to recalibrate to their natural
rates, approximately 3 percent in short-term interest rates and 4 percent in
10-year Treasury bond interest rates. This recalibration will
effect consumer spending in the coming years with consumers looking to pay down
debt and increase their savings due to higher interest rates.
Click here to read the full recap of this session in today's press release.
